Ministers have published a new ‘horizon scanning’ report looking at future trends and how they might inform policy in an ‘increasingly complex and uncertain world’.
The Future Trends for Scotland report looks at 60 global trends spanning areas including politics, the economy, society, technology, health and the environment, to inform strategic decision-making over the next 10 to 20 years.
The 36-page document, which is based on a review of published evidence, interviews and stakeholder workshops, is not an official policy guide, but aims to ‘spark reflection and guide decisions in a complex interconnected world’.
Kate Forbes, deputy first minister, says in the foreword: “The world around us is changing in ways that can be difficult to predict. By using insights and evidence about what is happening now, we can anticipate what the future might look like to build a prosperous Scotland.
“Insights in this Future Trends publication will allow us to use the best available evidence to make the right decisions for now and for the future. Our Public Service Reform Strategy, also publishing in June 2025, will set out how we can reform our services to be more efficient, more responsive to people’s needs and more focused on prevention, which will both improve outcomes for people and support a more sustainable public service environment.”
The document is organised into six overarching themes: politics and governance, economy, society and communities, technology, natural resources, energy and climate change, and health.
‘More than 180 stakeholders representing government, the wider public sector, third sector organisations, academia and business have contributed their insights during different phases of the project, offering direction and constructive challenge to help refine the findings,’ the document noted, stressing that the research is not a forecast or prediction of what the future will look like, but rather to provide insight and analysis of current trends.
The 60 trends highlighted are also not indicative of all trends that could impact Scotland in the next two decades.
However, participants in the study identified certain ‘foundational’ trends which cut across all six themes, including
demographic change, technological change, climate change and changes in the ways in which people use and access information.
The role of technology was highlighted in the economy research, especially around shaping future living standards, automation displacing jobs and the focus on lifelong learning and skills. In society and communities, the use of AI and online platforms was highlighted as ‘changing how people create and experience culture’, and in health, advances in medicine and technology were noted to be ‘improving healthcare’.
In the technology section itself, eight key trends were identified. Among them were the rising levels of adoption of AI in society, along with the ‘increasing development and adoption of more use-cases of quantum technology’. It highlighted the growth in opportunity for Scotland’s life sciences and space sectors, as well as technology impacting on the energy transition. ‘Cyberattacks and threats have grown in sophistication and frequency,’ the document also stresses.
In a section on AI and emerging technologies, the report notes: “The use of AI technology is growing rapidly across many sectors and is likely to have an important role in healthcare and education reforms. The impacts of AI for business and for wider society are uncertain. A 2024 Deloitte survey found 79% of business leaders expected generative AI to drive substantial transformation over the next three years. Other analysis suggests adoption will depend on many factors including cost, accessibility, ease of integration and scalability.”
Experts and the evidence gathered also focused on some of the more challenging aspects of AI.
‘Governments and others are concerned about how to manage the potential harms of generative AI, identifying risks of malicious use and malfunction, and systemic risks, such as labour market disruption, environmental risks and risks of deepening inequality,’ the paper warned. ‘AI applications may have the potential to reduce or exacerbate inequalities depending on how they are designed, controlled and applied. Many experts talked about the growth of AI and noted areas where it could be used positively, such as healthcare and combating climate change. Others were more cautious about its potential benefits and risks.’
The increased use of social media platforms was also highlighted.
‘Social media use is growing, including in the youngest age groups. The 2022 Health Behaviour in School Age Children (HBSC) Scotland study found that girls were more likely to spend time on social media than boys (3.2 hours per day compared with 2.5 hours). Social media use has been linked to poor mental health and wellbeing for young people, as well as to exposure to online harms. At the same time, other evidence suggests that social media can support wellbeing through connection. Interviewees expressed concern about the impacts of social media on young people in particular,’ the research noted.
Despite some of the misgivings around the impact of technology, the report pointed to a YouGov poll about the future in 2024 which found the Scottish public were most optimistic about future technology – with 37 per cent of people saying it will have more positive than negative impacts overall.
To read the full report visit here.
